What I’m Watching: Housing, Missouri jobs and the cost of growth

September 18, 2026

One theme I keep coming back to is capacity: whether we have the people, housing, infrastructure and financial conditions to support continued growth. This week’s developments look very different on the surface, but each says something about that question — and about the tradeoffs business leaders are navigating right now.

Here’s what I’m watching...

Springfield’s housing conversation is getting more concrete

Last week, I wrote that our housing conversation was moving from defining the problem toward evaluating practical approaches. Yesterday’s Restore SGF Housing Summit gave us a more concrete example.

Springfield Planning and Development Director Steve Childers outlined a proposal for a housing trust fund intended to help stimulate housing development. He also discussed missing-middle housing, zoning and regulatory changes, and the city’s land bank as pieces of a broader strategy. The trust-fund concept is still being developed and would require City Council approval.

Why it matters: Housing supply and affordability are increasingly tied to our ability to grow the workforce and sustain economic momentum. No single tool will solve that challenge. What is changing is the specificity of the conversation: which tools might actually expand supply, what they cost, how much private investment they can leverage and how they fit alongside other community priorities. That is the next stage of work we need to understand well.

Source: KSMU, Sept. 17 — Read more

Missouri’s labor market keeps strengthening

Missouri added 34,100 jobs over the past year, including 2,100 in August, while the state unemployment rate fell to 3.5% — down from 4.0% a year ago and below the national rate of 4.1%.

Another number caught my attention: Missouri’s labor-force participation rate was 63.3%, compared with 61.6% nationally. That’s encouraging, particularly because participation — the share of people working or actively looking for work — matters enormously when employers are competing for talent.

There’s an important local wrinkle. The most recent comparable Census estimate puts the Springfield metro’s longer-term labor-force participation rate at 62.7%, below both Missouri and the nation on the same measure. The datasets aren’t directly comparable to this month’s state numbers, but the broader point is consistent with something we’ve watched locally for years: growing the number of people participating in our workforce remains an opportunity.

Why it matters: A stronger Missouri labor market is a tailwind for Springfield, but statewide improvement doesn’t eliminate our local workforce challenge. One of our most important opportunities is not simply attracting more people to the region, but increasing the share of our population connected to the workforce. That makes participation an important measure to keep watching alongside job growth and unemployment.

Sources: Missouri Economic Research and Information Center, August jobs report — Read more; U.S. Census Bureau ACS 2020–2024 estimates — View Springfield metro data

The Fed sees enough strength to raise rates

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest-rate range by a quarter point Wednesday, to 3.75%–4.00%.

What I found more interesting was the explanation underneath the decision. The Fed describes economic activity as growing at a solid pace, consumer spending as resilient, productivity growth as strong and capital investment as robust — while inflation remains elevated. Its new projections also show slightly stronger expected growth and lower unemployment than in June, but higher inflation and a higher expected interest-rate path.

Why it matters: That combination tells a more useful story than the rate increase alone. The economy has remained strong enough that the Fed believes it still has room to fight inflation, but that also means businesses may be dealing with higher borrowing costs for longer than policymakers expected just a few months ago. For companies financing equipment, construction, real estate or expansion, the cost of capital remains an important part of the decision.

Sources: Federal Reserve FOMC statement, Sept. 16 — Read more; Federal Reserve economic projections — View projections

Fuel prices are becoming a business-cost story

Springfield’s average price for regular gasoline reached about $4.19 a gallon Thursday, compared with $4.04 a week earlier and $2.93 a year ago. Diesel is the bigger business story: Springfield’s average has climbed to about $6.18, more than 60 cents higher than a week ago.

Missouri’s statewide diesel average reached $6.07 Thursday — the highest recorded statewide average in AAA’s data. Nationally, gasoline has climbed above $4.43 as crude oil prices remain around $100 per barrel amid continued volatility in the Strait of Hormuz.

Why it matters: Fuel prices move quickly through the economy. For transportation and logistics companies the connection is obvious, but higher fuel costs also reach construction, field-service businesses, agriculture, distribution and eventually the prices employers pay for goods moving through their supply chains. If elevated diesel prices persist, this becomes another input-cost pressure at a time when businesses are already managing inflation and higher borrowing costs.

Sources: AAA Missouri fuel prices, Sept. 17 — View current prices; AAA national update, Sept. 17 — Read more