Springfield Chamber’s Economic Outlook Highlights National Trends and Local Strength

The Springfield Area Chamber of Commerce welcomed Kathleen Navin, CBE, Senior Economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, as the featured speaker for SBDC Economic Outlook on August 6. Hosted by the Springfield Chamber’s economic development arm, Springfield Business Development Corporation (SBDC), the event drew nearly 400 attendees to the Oasis Hotel & Convention Center for an in-depth look at the latest national and regional economic trends.

A Volatile but Resilient Economy

Navin described the first half of 2025 as marked by “a lot of volatility” and “pretty subdued growth.” The U.S. economy grew 2.8% in 2024, but 2025 started unevenly — GDP fell 0.5% in the first quarter before rebounding to 3% in the second. On average, that places growth for the first two quarters at about 1.2%.

Trade activity was a major factor. Many companies accelerated imports in early 2025 to get ahead of anticipated tariffs, creating a surge in Q1 followed by a drop in Q2.

Key Drivers of Growth

Navin identified three major contributors to GDP:

· Consumer spending – historically strong, but showing signs of softening.

· Business fixed investment – boosted early in the year by pre-tariff spending.

· Residential investment – declined in both quarters.

“When I see that growth is softening and consumer spending is softening, that gives me a little pause when thinking about the U.S. economy,” Navin said.

Missouri Outperforms the National Average

Despite national caution, Missouri’s GDP grew 2.2% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, outpacing the national average of about 2%.

Navin also pointed to progress on inflation and stabilization in financial markets. Financial stress that emerged in early April has largely dissipated, and inflation expectations remain well anchored. She emphasized the Federal Reserve’s commitment to long-term price stability, quoting Chair Jerome Powell:

“Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to prevent a one-time increase in the price level from becoming an ongoing inflation problem.”

Looking Ahead

While uncertainty remains part of the economic landscape — as noted in the July 2025 Beige Book — Navin underscored that the data shows continued forward movement.

Attendees left with a clearer picture of the challenges and opportunities ahead. While national trends point to measured growth, Springfield’s economic resilience and Missouri’s stronger-than-average performance offer reasons for optimism. The Springfield Chamber remains committed to connecting members with timely insights, fostering partnerships, and driving initiatives that strengthen the regional economy and quality of life. Events like the SBDC Economic Outlook are a powerful reminder that — together — we can navigate uncertainty and position our community for continued success.

 

To view Navin's Slideshows, click here.

Thank you to our Presenting Sponsor, Forvis Mazars!